If MNOs are not able to reinvent yes, in 5-10 years they will go bankruptcy.
At least in Europe.
Yet it is used just to solve congestion. There is no application killer for 5G.
Any end user application works fine with 4G it does not need 5G
Business case for 5G is not yet here.
In such scenario it isnāt useful to launch 5G in mmWave.
In fact very costly. They should go for low bands.
True.
Virtual reality may need now latency of 5G but it is not yet mature.
Original vision of 5G is not only m2m (or massive m2m), but ultra reliable low latency comms and enhanced mobile broadband (the triangle).
This is a nice story but do you know that urllc requires 12-15 dB stronger link budget?
Can you name a 5QI bearer that supports urllc on RAN side and in what NR band works and what is the SCS for it?
When 5G started it promised top speeds of 20 Gbpsec and average speeds of 1 Gbpsec.
We are very far away from that.
1.3 Gbpsec is achieved only if alone on the cell plus 4-5 CA in LTE.
Let alone the 20 Gbpsec promise, this is another hype.
Urrlc is never top speeds.
Thanks for quick refresher on the link budget.
That happened with LTE as well.
It was supposed to provide 1 Gbps in stationary and 100 Mbps in mobility.
It is not the fault of 5G my friend, but TX backhaul.
Yes, I think 20 Gbps is not achived yet till date, NRDC normally around 7-8 Gbps with total 800 MHz mmwv + 100 MHz sub6.
Here is the link for 5G design stating 20 Gbpsec:
https://5gobservatory.eu/info-deployments/5g-performance/
This is not the issue: the issue is that there is no application requiring URLLC hence not yet available.
eMBB is the most use case of 5G.
Interestingly, iāve seen the similar debate on the frustration on how the legacy networks unable to match the expectation.
Autonomous drones for pizza delivery.
Amazon Autonomous flying robot delivery.
Autonomous harbour platforms with 1 mm accuracy positioning.
Well, 5G was a bit of a let down, in part because the use cases where not there for mMTC or URLLC (which is arguably not even really needed for any real application), but also because it was in the end just a 4G on steroids, which didnāt deliver.
With 6G we might see some new services, like sensing and AI/ML, which could be game changers (or maybe not), and weāll hopefully fix some 5G mistakes. NTNs may also be a big thing, and industrial metaverse will eventually happen.
Also, the market may move from CSPs to private networks, and CSPs would have a hard time if they donāt adapt.
Anyway, 6G will happen, but I wouldnāt be so sure about 7G onwards.
This sound nice but is just a model on the paper.
Same like doctors performing remote surgeries with 5G.
The surgery theatre (robots themselves) would cost millions of dollars, bringing a doctor there costs 1000 usd.
Even more, why cable cannot do this? Why do we need 5G for remote surgery?
Would you trust your life to such kind of remote surgery where doctors cannot feel the kind of pressure on their cut?
Are you sure this doesnāt work on 4G? It doesnāt sound like a rocket science to deliver a pizza with a drone.
By the way, do you think there is 4G coverage up in teh skies everywhere to deliver a pizza with a drone? It needs rather a GPS than 4G.
Anyway, 5G is a good technology overall helping operators to offload 4G.
Even for this and it is enough.
Yet the revenue for 5G is far to become true.
Yes, I also think that market will move from CSP to private networks.
And Elon Musk could do this easily.
This is what I am saying: if MNOs do not reinvent themselves somehow they will die within 5-10 years. VDF cutting 11K jobs out of 100K jobs means serious issue for MNOs.
Many other operators are in high debt like ATT in US and Verizon in US. It is a mystery how will they recover.
If they will ever recover.
These are my individual thoughts and not of my company or not targeted towards any company or individual
If you think, Telecom Industry is not doing great, You are right and next two quarters may be even more painful.
Some of the major reasons I can understand are as below.
5G Monetization are very low - MNOs have done huge investment in 5G but their ARPU are not increasing significantly. They are cutting huge cost on 5G Deployment spending and they may cut it further
Open RAN didnāt pick the way companies expected - Companies had big expectation from Open RAN and a lot of companies (MNOs, OEMs, SIs, IT/ITES) jumped into it but there are few takers of Open RAN. I am not against Open RAN and I Feel it is a very good breakthrough technologies but IT IS GOING TO TAKE TIME
Private Networks - There are not great traction on Private Network front either
Global Scenarios - Global Scenarios for IT and Telecom world is not great and most of the new companies are at Cash Burn stage and funding crunch may derail their plans.
Outsourcing to In-Sourcing - The cut the costs further some companies may try to insources their network operation and which is going to impact companies like Ericsson and Nokia in a big way
New Age OEM are not getting the business they expected - Taking an example of Rakuten Symphony which acquired companies like Innoeye, Robin io, and Altiostar and not getting the business they expected. So now Rakuten is having huge pressure for cost cutting and cutting down on all variable cost (including manpower of techM and Accenture)
Even STL (Sterlite) have spent almost 500 Cr on Open RAN Deployment and closed that business unit.
Again as a disclaimer- These are my thoughts and you may agree or disagree with any of these and I will be more than happy if most of these things doesnāt happen. 
5G Monetization; low ARPU.
Thatās the life cycle of a new network technology, CSP invest in radio and core for basic connectivity while keeping a low ARPU. Next phase of the implementation of value added services that generates revenues on top of the connectivity.
This time unlike with 3G and 4G, there is a big new item that 5G brings and itās the opportunity to monetize Network APIs as well.
So yes, telecom industry is doing exactly what is needed to generate more revenues, the faster 5G implementation will be completed the sooner they will be able to move to the next phase.
Not a threat, an opportunity.
Your thoughts are pretty right dear.
I heard Rakuten has stopped the Rollout in Japan.
I am not sure but other colleges there can get this.
Itās mostly because telecom networks are being used only as data pipes.
I mean, other than running the internet on my mobile, the cellular operator cannot charge me.
Cellular operators need to use the ocean of data they have, to provide distinguished services.
They are not able to squeeze the big data they patronize and generate cash flows based on it.
Yes.
I think, we need a massive global recessionā¦ which will eliminate 80% of cellular operators.
And then, some new or existing smart operators would come up with the idea of monetizing the dataā¦
So thereās pain and blood in near future, but after recession, telecom will become sexy.
Thereās soooooooooooooo much that telcos can do with their dataā¦
Banks and telcos have the biggest amount of dataā¦ well after Google, Microsoft etcā¦ But Google and Microsoft cannot target every niche.
2025-2035 will be the era of monetization of data. And also, thatās the time when it will become difficult to get data, due to awareness about privacy.
But banks and telcos get data by design.
One cannot use banking and cellular services without giving data.
Even if telcos embark upon the simple idea of anonymizing the data and selling it upfront.
Its a huge business.
Let me give two examples.
This portalā¦ Tardis DOT dev:
What do they do?
Well, they pull data from various crypto exchanges and blockchain, which is essentially free data in real time.
And archive it. and sell it.
And just look at the prices.
I have spent a big amount of money purchasing data from them. And a lot of traders do buy data from them.
For them, the cost is that of infra. but that cost is going down very fast.
And this dashboard is made by a Pakistani guy in Islamabad.
He pulls data from IBKR and sells subscription of this dashboard.
Ever imagine, how much is he making from it?
He was making 120,000 USD per month in Dec 21. At that time, price of its subscription was 40$ per month.
Now, its price is 69$ per month and community has also grown.
Can telcos anonymize customers data and sell it?
Can they prepare dashboards and sell it?
Our mobiles are closer to us on average, than our spouse.
We spend only few hours with our family. But mobile is 24/7 with us.
It means, telcos know me better than my wife and my mom.
They can sell this data to e-commerce companies.
To politicians (call it wrong).
To policeā¦ to people conducting research on bla bla bla (give them some discounts).
