Hi Experts.
We know that avg throughput can be influenced by many factors, then how would we predict the nation-level average throughput speeds after let’s say, 5 years?
Any prediction model, or rough studies suggestions?
What about this?
You can plot long trend for number of users Vs. User throughput.
And see the increase in users with respect to throughput decrease.
And get percentage of change year to year.
Huawei has it in smart care tool.
Prediction results can be obtained.
Regarding traffic and users.
I believe it has more to it than just those 2 factors, the available bandwidth is going to increase through new allocation and refarming (i.e. switching off legacy), the deployment of new sites and where they’re deployed…etc.
I think it’s a huge thing to be calculated.
And think from a nation level of multiple operators/vendors not just from a vendors point of view.
But I’m just curious how should this be tackled.
It’s measured through a global index from a crowdsourcing company and/or a DT in the field of single point testing or cluster drives.
I think it’s a discussion type of a question rather than straight forward answers.
Ah got your point.
If on this large scale, I agree it is not straight forward.
Hi Salem!
If you have data for each month (more than 24months) you can use math. statistical method “Holt Winters method”.
That method is good for prediction of traffic and take into consideration seasonality.
Ericsson has a tool (part of Cognitive SW packet: Capacity Planning module). That tool can predict traffic/user trends and KPIs for years ahead for 1 site or for 10000 sites.
I am sure that other vendors also has such tools.
Also, for nation-wide estimation could be good to use information from SpeedTest site. They have multiple reports for each country/city: